Hint Off #134 – Doomsday

“The Scream” – Edvard Munch (1893); Oslo, Norway – 3 feet by 2.5 feet – Public Domain

A tsunami of change is currently washing over ballot boxes around the world. The tides are flowing in different directions, and the call for change is clear. In this uncertainty, confirmation bias is dominating on all sides.

Politics cannot be reduced simply to taking sides. It has always been inherently contested. Democracy depends as much on what we are against as on what we have in common. It is a place where differences are resolved, not a middle ground where differences are set aside. Cooperation does not require agreement.

In times of explosive uncertainty, it might be useful to rethink how we describe what is going on. Politics is full of name-calling, polite conversation is full of heavy talk about the “end” of something: the end of the West, the end of democracy, the end of the beginning, the end of civilization. And the title of the bestselling book is The end of it all (2020), Five Ways the Universe Could End.

Like “the end,” “polarize” is one of our words of the day, a word that draws on what a prominent language philosopher called “performative speech.” Like cancer, performative language does not simply describe an existing reality; instead, it actively shapes social perceptions, behaviors, and identities, impacting the real world. When I'm told I have cancer, it's “the end.” I'm going to die. (An everyday example would be our own names: my mother says Bill, not Bill.) WilliamI realized I was in trouble.

Like generalizations, performative language is inevitable and a part of everyday speech and writing. But knowing how words work can help clarify their meaning. The word “polarization” shapes what it represents. It is part of the story, albeit misleadingly wrong at best. The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences published a research paper revealing that “perceived polarization is substantially greater than actual polarization.” This is a phenomenon that results from the tricks of the brain and our tendency for confirmation bias to see what we want to see. Even a limited claim (“Many Republicans…”) becomes a blanket claim. We remember general statements better than more limited statements.

There are few differences in our beliefs that cannot be bridged. Nelson Mandela met with right-wing heroes of apartheid in South Africa to facilitate the transition to democratic rule. Lech Walesa, leader of Poland's Solidarity movement, negotiated with the Communist government, resulting in semi-free elections and the collapse of Communism in Poland. Similarly, Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams reached an agreement with the British government in the Northern Ireland peace process. Little known in the West, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki recently signed a historic peace agreement, ending two decades of conflict and restoring diplomatic relations between their two countries.

A realist might call this an anomaly. So what is real to a realist? It is unlikely under normal circumstances, but it is not impossible. They say we are facing an “existential crisis.” It may be like we have cancer. The real question is how to live, knowing we are going to die. Our days are already numbered.

Rivka Galchen, a reporter for The New Yorker, is not optimistic about the future. She recently reported on a course at the University of Chicago called “Are We Doomed?” She wrote about the reactions after the course and focused on students who have relatives in the nuclear industry. This theme particularly resonated with her. She has no hopes about the future. He said that you don't need a future to have hope..

This young man was all the more persuasive because he was free of any pretense or sentimentality. Galchen reports him as saying:

“In a debate last week, I wrote about the problem of building cathedrals. How can people who face life's uncertainty build cathedrals that could potentially take a lifetime to build? My argument was that the people who built cathedrals were people who believed in the apocalypse, who were convinced they were going to be destroyed.”

He digressed a bit and said, “'It's amazing how many myths about the end of the world there are, just as many myths about its creation.'

“Then he went back to the cathedral builders, or to himself, and he said, 'It's a strange feeling to know for sure that the world is going to end, but I don't know the exact time or day when it's going to happen, so I guess I'd better dedicate myself to something.'”

Camus said, “The greatest courage is to stare straight into the light as much as to stare into death. The true generosity of the future lies in giving oneself entirely to the present.”

Notes and reading

Politics has always been a “controversial concept.” William E. Connolly Political discourse terminology (1974, 1993). An American political theorist, Connolly is renowned for his contributions to our understanding of democracy, pluralism, capitalism, and climate change. (Johns Hopkins University) For a critical balance, see John Gray's The New Leviathan: Post-Liberal Thinking (2024). Gray emphasizes that the rise of illiberalism reflects genuine discontent and a desire for alternative forms of governance that promise stability, security, and cultural coherence.

“Performative speech” – J.L. Austin, How to get things done with words (1962, 2018). A modern classic. Groundbreaking. Austin (d. 1960) was a British philosopher of language and a proponent of “ordinary language” philosophy. My examples of performatives are different from those originally discussed by Austin, but they fit very well with the spirit of his work.

Bipolarization Escape route: How to overcome harmful polarization (2021). Coleman is a professor of psychology and education at Columbia University. The book is a good introduction to conflict resolution. – “Buzz: Is Polarization Exaggerated?” Public Relations Council (January 2024).

“Is the Irish Citizens' Assembly the Solution to the Western Culture Wars?” Laundry Ayers, Substack Non-populist (June 29, 2024). Ayers is editor-in-chief and senior producer at The UnPopulist. “Citizens Assembly is a fascinating experiment in deliberative democracy that has liberalized abortion in a Catholic country without deepening polarization.”

Camus – This quote is from a posthumous collection. Lyric poetry and critical essays (1970), Quoted by Maria Popova Marginalist (June 28, 2024).

Alexander Herzen, From the other side Translated by Mora Budberg, edited by Isaiah Berlin (1979). Herzen was a Russian political thinker, activist, and writer (died 1870). His political thought continues to interest the Western world for his insights into populism and democracy, and for his rejection of accusations of “utopianism.”

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